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Monday, October 8, 2018

Winning The Base


I still found "Hillary won more than 3 million votes" post in Instagram. To be precise, quoting Wikipedia: "While Clinton received over 2.8 million more votes nationwide, a margin of 2.1%..." 

2.1% from 100 people means it's 49 people vs 51 people, with 2 people difference. 2.1% from 1 million people means it's 490K people vs 510k people, 20k people difference. The number of people increased, but if you put the percentage in perspective there are almost the same amount of people voting for the two things. 

This is the reason why you can't overlook the substantial amount of people that actually vote for him. You can be as loud as you want to "Dump Trump" or posting as many 'Trump's evil-doing' as you want, but all it will do is making the silent voice seethe and retaliate against your cause. 

Not every Trump voters vote for him because they too like to grab 'em by the pussy. Some vote for him because they feel he has a better understanding of what the US needed than Hillary. Some because they are more uncomfortable with Hillary than with him, the poise of a rich white woman is less relatable than loud-mouthed crass that could easily be someone they know.

Not everyone who refused to denounce Trump is knee-deep in adultery and third marriages or hate LGBTQ and Muslims in such wrath. Some don't even vote for him at all but decide that his policy is something they can live with. You will be surprised on how many legal immigrants are in line with his immigration policy. And some just decided patriotically that now he is the US president they should support his policies, or at least be more objective to them.

The future vote will be an ugly vote again, and one that will potentially be lost if there is no change in attitude. An article on The Hill stated 45% of sampled people think there's an anti-Kavanaugh bias in the media, while 20% think there's pro-Kavanaugh bias, and 35% see it as neutral. 45% is a lot of unhappy people that feel things has been done unfairly. 

Combined that to 49% popular vote that Trump received, and you will realize how despite the noise in the media and all the celeb dis-endorsement Trump is actually in good position for 4 more years in the office. Numbers don't lie.

You can think of it as you being a martyr in this harsh, cruel, despicable world. Or you can try to see what and why other people feel what they feel. You can try to persuade people with proper facts instead of a knee-jerk reaction. [And when I say persuade, it means listening to their concerns and try to alleviate them instead of shutting them with "But you must understand!"]

As much as you think you are in the right, without properly assessing Trump's base in terms of numbers and reasons/things that sway their votes you are in danger of getting 4 years of Trump [and the senators/representatives that will back him up]. Just because it's trendy to hate Trump, it doesn't mean the silent ones won't fight back.

Now the true question is, do you really want to dump Trump or do you just need someone to hate? If you hate Trump for the crass he is, there's nothing we can do about it. If you hate Trump because of his policies, get your homework done. 

Mark which policy could be made better with understanding all the potential consequences and pitfalls (i.e. don't just "We want free healthcare but we don't want to get taxed!"). Mark which one you expect to be done by the next president and which one that you should whip your congressman and congresswomen to achieve.

Sure, we all hate Trump, right? That is, we all plus 3 million extra people who vote for Hillary. It's a lot, but so does his base. Be smart about it. Trump won in 2016 because people underestimate him. You want him out? Then do your homework and stop assuming. This is a battle that won't be won just because Chrissy Teigen and JK. Rowling said so.

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